Unless the city takes action, one-armed bandits may end up robbing Philadelphians rather than filling public coffers with coins as officials hoped.

A recently published study has suggested that rather than ringing in a jackpot, casinos end up costing residents about $190 a year. However, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania said Philadelphia could defy the odds by creating long-term agreements with casinos holding them accountable for their effects on the city.

Initial predictions, estimates based almost exclusively on revenue, were rosy. The governor estimated that once the state’s 11 gaming operations were up and running they would generate $1 billion annually for the commonwealth.

Anticipating that target, the state said Philadelphia would collect a jackpot of $304 million in addition to $28 million in fees collected as a host community. Recently, predictions have been even better with state estimates predicting a $1.7 billion windfall, which would increase the city’s share.

Early performance seemed to support official optimism. By mid-February, just 89 days after the first casino opened in the Poconos, the state’s share of revenue, including licensing fees, hit $267 million.

“The revenues from this new industry already significantly exceed the expense thus far for startup cost(s) associated with gaming,” said Gaming Control Board Executive Director Anne LaCour Neeb at the time. “The result is a return on investment to Pennsylvanians that has been tremendously positive.”

But, a growing body of evidence suggests that odds favor casinos and not the communities hosting them. According to the American Gaming Association, casino gaming brought in $32.42 billion in 2006, that’s nearly double the revenue reported in 1987. But, the costs to residents have also gone up with some experts estimating costs to society as high as $40 billion.

Earl Grinols, a professor at Baylor University and David Mustard, an economist from the University of Georgia, studied the effects of casinos over a period of almost 30 years from 1977 to 2005. They examined the impact of casinos in more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide and concluded that crime increased and the number of jobs fell in counties with gaming.

Their independent look at the industry contradicts prevailing thoughts on gaming.

“According to estimates, between 5.5 and 30 percent of the different crimes in casino counties can be attributed to casinos,” they concluded. “This figure does not include other social costs related to casinos such as crime in neighboring counties … costs related to employment and lost productivity, social service and welfare costs.”

According to their data, property crimes increased over time after casinos were built.

“We concluded that casinos increased all crime, except murder,” said Grinols and Mustard.

Significant increases in aggravated assault, rape, robbery, larceny, burglary and car theft were found.

Typically, crime fell immediately after casinos opened reflecting job growth that often accompanies casino construction.

In addition, casinos often increase funding for local police departments. However, according to Grinols and Mustard, crime started to climb about two years after casinos begin operation.

The number of robberies, for example, rose from about 11 per 100,000 residents to approximately 65 in that five-year period.

Aggravated assault followed the trend skyrocketing from about 10 per 100,000 residents to a high of more than 70. Larceny tripled and burglary jumped from fewer than one case per 100,000 to more than 300.

Crime not only rose in the counties where the casinos were located but also in neighboring counties, though at a slower rate. Unemployment also went up.

Another study, by Dr. Frederic Murphy, from Temple University, examined the impact that casinos could have in Philadelphia and found that casinos there drew business away from existing entertainment venues resulting in a loss for the local municipalities. He estimated that almost 6,000 jobs would be lost. The losses for the state would be even greater, according to Murphy, who predicted that more than 17,000 jobs would be lost statewide.

“With fewer jobs available, those from the bottom of the economic ladder will have a harder time finding work. Given the increased crime associated with joblessness, the expense of the criminal justice system will increase not only from the casino-related issues but also because more people will turn to crime,” wrote Murphy.

Part of the problem is the proliferation of casinos, which means the wealth is spread ever thinner while the costs to the community grow at rates those communities cannot sustain. Twelve states now have legalized gambling (without counting gaming on Indian reservations); up from two in 1987. To benefit communities casinos have to draw visitors from outside the region.

Even then there are risks. Another study, by The New York Times, found that t he number of independent restaurants dropped from 48 the year casinos opened to 16 in 1997. Within just four years of the casinos arrival, in Atlantic City one-third of its retail businesses had closed.

Philadelphia can profit from the experience of other cities and states, said Dr. Harris J. Sokoloff, associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Graduate School of Education.

“P art of the issue really is, how does the community respond to and interact with the casinos as they plan to come? Normally what happens is that somebody develops a community benefit agreement,” he said.

That has been done here. Both casinos approved by the state have pledged to pump money into the city on top of their share of tax revenue. Sugarhouse has said it will give as much as $3 million to the city annually through a foundation called The Sugarhouse Foundation. In addition, Sugarhouse has also promised to pay $67 million over the next 10 years in lieu taxes. Foxwoods promised to give back to the community but has not pledged a specific dollar amount. Foxwoods has fought any payments in lieu of taxes. Both projects qualified for tax abatement.

Sokoloff said that the city should also monitor other factors by establishing an advisory board to make sure the community’s requirements are being met.

“You need a formal working arrangement, something which sort of speaks to what the community values,” he said. “For example, one of the things that the community could do is say, ‘Look we have a set of principles that is important to our community then develop a mechanism to hold (casinos) accountable.’ That will I believe reduce the negative impact.”

His plan follows a blueprint developed in New York City for the redevelopment of the waterfront in Brooklyn.

“The message has to be about long-term community investment. We have a chance to do it differently here then they have in other places,” he said. “I think if we do it thoughtfully and slowly and carefully we can learn from others mistakes and others’ successes.”