It’s possible that U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah and State Rep. Dwight Evans could lose the Philadelphia mayoral race to businessman Tom Knox, according to a second poll released yesterday by The Philadelphia Tribune.

Of the 400 African-American registered voters polled, 27 percent said they planned to vote for Fattah. In the Tribune’s first poll on the mayoral race in October 2006, however, Fattah’s support stood at 33 percent.

In the latest poll, which was conducted from March 21-23, Evans held onto second with 18 percent of the respondents’ votes, and businessman Knox surged into third place with 14 percent of the respondent’s votes.

Knox only had 1 percent of the vote in October 2006 and has managed to increase his support by 13 percent.

National pollster Ron Lester of Lester & Associates in Washington, D.C., conducted the poll, which was a citywide telephone survey. The poll was conducted with a margin of error 4.9 percent. Lester said he found Knox’s standing impressive.

“Tom Knox is on the move, without question,” Lester said. “He is gaining support rapidly. It is at this point pretty much a two-candidate race, but given the fact that Congressman Fattah has not been on television. He really hasn’t fired his shot yet.”

Lester said on one hand, Fattah not having any television ads is a good advantage for him to gain momentum. But, with Knox having an early lead by paying for expensive television ads, Lester said he is dominating right now.

Evans also ran television ads and is considered to be “highly favorable,” but Lester said that does not translate to votes.

“Voters know him and like him, but they are not necessarily voting for him,” Lester said.

Evans told The Tribune that he is looking forward to Election Day on May 15. He said that he’d much rather be first in the Tribune poll.

“This race is going to come down to Election Day,” he said. “It is going to be a close race and who is going to get the vote out. I am going to get this vote out. I am talking about reducing violence in the street. My message is resonating with the vast majority in Philadelphia. I have been consistent. I will be happy on May 15 when the polls are closed and I win.”

In more of a bleak outlook, Former City Councilman Michael Nutter has remained the same, at 9 percent of the respondent’s votes.

U.S. Rep. Bob Brady has increased his support by 2 percentage points, but that landed him last with only 8 percent of the respondent’s votes, most likely because of a recent court hearing concerning whether or not he will be removed from the ballot.

Lester said both Brady and Nutter seemingly are not in a place right now to overcome the other top three candidates.

“Michael Nutter and Bob Brady, particularly with Black voters, are just not strong enough to overtake three more formidable candidates, in terms of their numbers,” Lester said. “In terms of their image, it would be fair to say that Knox has definitely connected with Black voters.”

Lester said Nutter is not well known outside of West Philadelphia and he is not favorable.

“I think a lot of it is image,” Lester said. “Black voters really do not respond to his profile.”

Lester added that in a city like Philadelphia, where there is racial polarization in voting and with three Black candidates almost all at double digits, and a white candidate like Knox moving upward it makes it almost impossible for a Black candidate to win.

Melanie Johnson, Nutter’s spokeswoman, said the fact Nutter remains at 9 percent is not negative.

“I think we are rather excited that he stayed at 9 percent,” Nutter said. “He has a consistent base, because we have only room to grow. It is a consistent number. Other people have fluctuated up or down. Forty percent of the people do not have any idea who they are going to vote for. It seems to me that we have room to grow.”

Brady’s small increase and last standing in The Tribune poll was unexpected to Lester, but his recent court hearing over failing to include his city pension on his nomination forms might have contributed to the demise.

“I was surprised,” Lester said. “I think a lot of this hubbub over the ballot has damaged him. I think it has affected his numbers. I think Brady will be a non-factor in the race.”

Brady’s spokeswoman Kate Phillips said Lester’s connection of Brady’s court hearing to his unpopularity in the poll right now could be related.

“Your pollster may be on to something,” Phillips said. “When African Americans and all Philadelphians learn more and more about Bob’s record, and how much he has done for the people of Philadelphia, in particular the African-American community, then his numbers will continue to rise. Bob has brought over $2 billion from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, $1.5 billion for Operation Safe Streets, $100,000 for African American Museum (in) Philadelphia, and $298,000 for Concerned Black Men. It is his record that really counts. Part of the campaign is getting that record out.”

Lester said the poll’s findings revealed more Black Philadelphians are more apt to voting for a non-African-American candidate. But between the two Democratic white candidates, Knox has more likeability among Blacks than Brady, who has held a congressional seat.

“His message has been received very well,” Lester said. “He defined his image around the issues. Crime for example, he gets high rating on. Education for example. So, he is connected in terms of message. It would be fair to say that the Black community has responded favorably to Tom Knox’s message.”

Lester added that because Knox is funding his $15 million campaign, that it would be hard for the other candidates to bring about any negatives to his campaign.

Robert W. Bogle, The Tribune’s President and CEO, said it is clear that Knox could win the mayoral race. Yet, he said that some factors that could hurt his race still have not come up to surface, starting with his upbringing in the Abbotsford public housing projects.

“He says he was born and raised in what is now a predominantly African-American community,” Bogle said. “Remember, in ’54 that was a segregated housing project. Remember that. The fact that he made a great deal of his money over payday loans. That has not come out. When African Americans are aware of that, I am not quite sure of what his support is going to be.”

Knox’s spokesman, Brad Katz, said he was ecstatic over the poll results.

“Tom has had conversations with voters all across Philadelphia and every neighborhood,” Knox said. “It is incredibly gratifying that our message is registering with all voters. He will continue to get out there and talk to more voters.”

Fattah still has a lead among the other candidates and Lester attributes that to his strong grounding.

“Fattah has shown that he is resilient and that he is strong, because he hasn’t been on television like the other candidates have and his drop has been very slight.” Lester said. “I think it shows that he is doing some other things out thing and it’s got to be grounded. His ability to communicate with the voters is strong and is keeping him in this thing.”

A. Bruce Crawley, former chair of the African-American Chamber of Commerce of Philadelphia said Fattah’s name recognition could not solidify voters’ interests, and that he has to have a great strategy for keeping his supporters.

“If he doesn’t begin to do that pretty soon, I think that you’ll still see some modest erosion in his base,” Crawley said. “The more voters know about the other candidates the more they will give them an opportunity at the polls.”

Fattah was unavailable for comment as of Tribune press time.

Lester added that the race is going to be split among Black voters in the future. When that happens, Lester said it is likely that Evans and Fattah will cancel each other out and possibly give Knox leverage.

“It is blatantly clear that if an African American expects to win this race, one of those two is going to have to drop out,” Bogle said. “If that doesn’t happen, it is blatantly clear that Tom Knox is going to win this race.”

Among the polls, other key findings include that almost one in four of the city’s African Americans are still undecided in their voting.

That group, according to the survey, is comprised of 53 percent of people who are 60 years of age or older; 61 percent hold a high school diploma or less; 69 percent earn less than $30,000 per year and 80 percent are residents of North, Northwest and West Philadelphia.

In the last Tribune poll, the majority of undecided votes at 42 percent came from South Philadelphia residents. That number has decreased to 14 percent, as most South Philadelphia voters choosing Brady and Knox, whose support went from zero to 22 percent among South Philadelphians.

Michelle Smith of South Philadelphia told The Tribune yesterday that she is still undecided on her vote.

“I believe that the candidates that are running for mayor, I don’t hear them talk about the issues as far as helping Black people get jobs,” Smith said. “The crime in the area in South Philadelphia where I live is high crime. There’s a lot of drugs in the community. Those are the most of issues that I am undecided (on).”