The Horn of Africa is once again on the edge. After years of chaos and warlord-ism, an ultra-conservative Islamist movement known as the Union of Islamic Courts has begun to unify Somalia. This unification via the whip, reminiscent of the approach of the Taliban in Afghanistan in the early 1990s, is linked to a mythical view of fundamentalist Islam counterposed to the terror that the Somali people have experienced since the 1991 overthrow of long-time dictator Mohamed Siad Barre.

The ironies in Somalia are many. Most of the rest of the world 0was prepared to rest content while Somalia degenerated into clan and warlord chaos for most of the last fifteen years. As long as any business could be conducted, the West particularly turned a blind eye to the misery of the Somali people. Only with the rise of the right-wing Islamist movement known as the Union of Islamic Courts, and allegations — never proven — of ties with Al Qaeda, did a buzz of concern begin to spread about what could unfold.

Since the overthrow of Barre there have been countless attempts to resolve the turmoil and create a new national government. Each effort failed. A transitional government, established through lengthy negotiations, held out the hope of peace, but its base within Somalia was always weak, so weak in fact that for quite some time they did not locate themselves within Somalia.

Thus, it should have been no surprise that a movement would rise, promising stability and order. The fact that this movement is highly repressive and seeks to criminalize much of the behavior that has been part of Somali society — such as films and certain music—should also not surprise anyone since desperate conditions often lead to desperate and irrational decisions. What is clear is that the Somali people have been looking for a cessation of the clan warfare and many of them were and are willing to accept anything that will stop this. Whether we in the outside world agree or disagree is secondary. This is a matter that must be settled, ultimately, by the Somali people.

Into this mix have stepped both Ethiopia and Eritrea. Since the degeneration of their relationship and the insane war that the two countries fought between 1998-2000 over their border, tensions have remained high. Somalia has now become a site for a proxy fight between the two sides, with the Ethiopians supporting the Somali transitional government and the Eritreans allegedly supporting the Union of Islamic Courts. There is profound danger in this game of regional politics.

The Ethiopians risk continental ostracism for getting involved in the internal affairs of Somalia. They are not there on behalf of the African Union or as a result of an agreed upon peacekeeping settlement. The Eritreans, by the same token, are playing with dynamite—much like the U.S. did when it supported the mujahideen in Afghanistan in their war against the Soviet Union in the 1980s—in that they may strengthen a very reactionary force that could influence the politics of the Horn of Africa, including within Eritrea itself.

Standing behind this entire mess appears to be the U.S.A.. No surprise there. The Bush administration is concerned about the rise of the Union of Islamic Courts and, having branded them as Al Qaeda-lite, wishes to see this movement blocked, if not destroyed. It appears that the Ethiopian government, led by a regime that at one point claimed to be anti-imperialist, has chosen to serve the interests of the USA in this case. Thus, not only does Ethiopia face the prospect of a deadly, long-term conflict to its South, but the USA faces the prospect of potential involvement should the conflict evolve either into another Ethiopian/Eritrean War, or should the Union of Islamic Courts gain public sympathy because they are seen as victims of the one global superpower.

One can disagree with and, indeed, fear the Union of Islamic Courts, while at the same time recognizing that the Somali people will need to resolve this situation. The involvement of other nations does nothing to advance a desperately needed peace process, but instead pushes the situation toward a dramatic escalation. Not only must the USA stay out of Somalia, but all friends of Africa must insist that Ethiopia and Eritrea step back from the precipice. The flames of hell are already scorching their feet.

Bill Fletcher Jr. is a long-time labor and international writer and activist. Currently a Visiting Professor at Brooklyn College-CUNY, he is the immediate past president of TransAfrica Forum. He can be reached at papaq54@hotmail.com.